Energy Transition Bulletin
An X-ray of Brazil's energy transition regulatory agenda in the first quarter of 2026, from the COP30 impasse to carbon credit auctions and the new carbon market secretariat.
What you need to know
The six essential points of the energy transition agenda this quarter.
COP30 ended without a conclusive roadmap for phasing out fossil fuels; a preliminary version is expected in June and the final version before COP31, in October.
The conflict in the Middle East put pressure on oil prices, leading to emergency subsidies for diesel, biodiesel, and LPG.
The 3rd Eco Invest Brasil auction raised R$ 52 billion — ten times the projected target — with 64.5% of the funds directed to the energy transition.
MPs 1300 and 1304 were enacted with vetoes, redesigning part of the sector's regulatory framework.
The Extraordinary Secretariat for the Carbon Market was created, under Cristina Fróes, responsible for regulating the SBCE by November 2026.
Rio Grande do Norte led the country with 13 of the 16 new energy projects registered in February 2026.
The seven themes of the Thermometer
The bulletin organizes the regulatory agenda around seven major energy transition themes.
- Electricity and the 2026 LRCAP
- Critical minerals and geopolitics
- Hydrogen and sustainable fuels
- Carbon market and SBCE
- Green finance and Eco Invest Brasil
- COP30 and the fossil fuel roadmap
- New energy projects by state
Two highlights of the quarter
The auction that surprised: Eco Invest Brasil
The 3rd Eco Invest Brasil auction raised R$ 52 billion, ten times above the projected target, with 64.5% of the funds going directly to energy transition projects — a strong sign of market appetite for Brazilian green instruments.
The new architecture of the carbon market
The creation of the Extraordinary Secretariat for the Carbon Market, under Cristina Fróes, formalizes the governance of the Brazilian Emissions Trading System (SBCE), with a target of regulating its first phase by November 2026.
Upcoming regulatory milestones
Publication of the ProBioQAV decree, with SAF blending targets of 1% as early as 2027 and 10% in 2037.
Publication of the Hydrogen Legal Framework, expected for the first half of 2026.
Completion of the first phase of SBCE regulation, scheduled for November 2026.
Progress of the Redata bill, currently stalled in the Senate, and its impact on the power sector.